A missed opportunity

Over at Firedoglake, Jane Hamsher appears in a discussion with Amanda Carpenter and, while Carpenter mouths talking points that show she doesn't know what she is talking about, Jane's response is sadly inadequate. Jane had a great opportunity to educate her listeners regarding the oft-repeated talking point that Social Security will "go broke" by 2042, but she missed it. Then Jane repeated the distorting statement about how Congress keeps taking money out of Social Security. Go watch the video and when you come back I'll explain things for you (if you don't know about it already, which you might if you've been paying attention to what I've written in the past).

Social Security won't go broke in 2042 if there is no change in the rate or manner in which Social Security is taxed. Social Security is currently operating at an increasing annual surplus. That is, every year it takes in more money than it needs and the surplus is getting larger every year. Congress spends that surplus. In about five years that surplus will begin to shrink. Social Security will still be operating at an annual surplus, but the size of the surplus will get smaller. Around the year 2042, it is estimated that Social Security will begin to operate at a deficit. That is not "going broke", as stated by Amanda Carpenter in the video. Ms Carpenter doesn't know what she is talking about. When it is operating at a deficit, Social Security will not be able to make full payments to Social Security recipients. Consequently, the size of the payments would, if no other adjustments are made to make up for the shortfall, decrease. I have read more than a few proposals for fixing that anticipated problem, but it is not the purpose of this posting to discuss those competing proposals.

Jane's error was in not specifying the way in which Amanda Carpenter got it all wrong. Jane simply contradicted Carpenter's remarks without clarifying. Furthermore, Jane reinforced the impression that there is some bank account somewhere in which the money for Social Security is placed and then raided by Congress. If the Social Security surplus is not used, it cannot be "saved". The government has to do something with it. Again, this posting is not for arguing about what to do with the money. Jane's remarks on that score, however, echo Al Gore's unfortunate remarks in the year 2000 regarding a "lock box". You can't put the money in a lock box. It has to be used or returned to the taxpayers. Congress chooses to spend it. That's a topic for another posting.

I really wish people would get the topic of Social Security correct because I get tired of explaining it and we can't move on to a real discussion of what to do about the minor problem presented by Social Security's decreasing surplus until people get past the misinformation.

Illiteracy Watch

The following is from an article at Politico by Jeanne Cummings:

The presumptive Republican nominee ended the month with about $22 million in primary funds in the bank, about less than half that of the Obama campaign. McCain’s overall primary fundraising topped at about $100 million, nearly three times less than Obama has collected.

"Three times less than"? Is that supposed to mean "one-third of"?

Do they have editors at Politico? I hope they hire some.

All in redux

Found a different venue for the weekly poker tournament tonight and made the final table. Finished seventh. I was short-stacked, the blinds were $2000 and $4000, I was already in the small blind, had $2000 in the blind and only $4000 left, and drew a K-10 clubs. I went all in and got a call from a big stack with 5-7 diamonds. He drew a straight on me. Too bad. I only played two hands badly tonight, but I lost a lot of chips on those two hands. I was short-stacked all night and not catching cards when I needed them and made it to seventh, so I count it as a fair to good night.

The Real McCain

You'll love this.

Why we lost our democracy

According to OpenSecrets.org, which gets its information from the public filings of the campaigns, as of March, Barack Obama had spent $183,671,081 just to get the Democratic nomination for president. Hillary Clinton had spent $157,384,855.

McCain had spent $65,112,112.

Obama had $51,073,999 left, Clinton had $31,712,197 left, and McCain had $11,579,713 left.

That doesn't include what all the other candidates spent before they became no longer viable as possible nominees from their parties. Close on to half a billion dollars have been spent by people seeking a job that pays $400,000 a year and the party conventions and campaigns for president haven't even begun.

Something is very wrong here. If you never considered the importance of publicly financed elections before, consider it now.

Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded

To expand on my earlier posting in which I discussed vice presidential prospects of Barack Obama, I think Janet Napolitano, governor of Arizona, would be an inspired choice for reasons that go beyond her qualifications, which are at least as impressive as Senator Obama's qualifications for office. See, some years go Geraldine Ferraro ran for vice president on the Democratic ticket and lost; there hasn't been a woman on the ticket for the presidency or the vice presidency from either of the two major parties since then. This year Hillary Clinton ran for president and had a good chance of getting the Democratic nomination. That is a significant development and, in fact, Senator Obama doesn't have the nomination definitively sewn up yet against her. But if he were to get the nomination and then name a woman for the vice presidential slot, it would be the beginning of making women in high office common enough to be unremarkable. All year we had a lot of hullabaloo over the fact that Senator Clinton is a woman, and her candidacy certainly did a lot to smash the perception that only a man could become president, but the next step in that evolution towards a more just and equal and, frankly, sensible society is for such a candidacy to be unremarkable. Let it become a commonplace thing and we might take some further steps as a culture towards gender equality and ending the oppression of women that is itself so commonplace that people aren't even aware of it when they participate.

All in

Well, I got knocked out of my weekly poker tournament tonight when I got pot stuck on a bluff and figured, at that point, folding would have left me too short-stacked and I had enough of a draw with one card to come to make the bet and hope my opponent would fold her pair. She kept the kings and I didn't hit the ace, the third six, or the straight on the river and that's all she wrote. I played well up to that point, too, but I don't think my concentration was there or I would have seen her commitment to her hand before I got pot stuck. See, there's this fellow who's felted me twice and I was at his table from the start of the evening tonight, so I played at him all night, trying to beat him up as badly as I could. He, on the other hand, was playing at me like he did twice before. Tonight I kicked him in every hand we met in, but another player beat the snot out of him and he was the first one gone from our table. I was very pleased with that and I think my concentration faded after he was gone. I did play well, but not well enough. On the other hand, I learned an awful lot about the lady who knocked me out as well as learning more about the guy who kept playing at me. Since there's another tournament next week, I'll be able to make use of it.

Desperation in the Land of the Crazy

McCain went full-on crazy today, predicting that the US will be at war in Iraq for five more years (or ten Friedman Units) if he is elected president. That's just what the American people want to hear.

Thank you, John McCain, for making sure everyone knows that a vote for you is a vote for four more years of George Bush. Senator Obama, I believe you just wrapped up the White House.

Ahhhhh!

I'm in heaven. So far this morning I've seen an American Redstart, a Yellow-rumped Warbler, and a Yellow Warbler in my back yard. Have I mentioned before that I am a birder? I am, though I haven't been terribly active with it in years. Have I mentioned that warblers are my favorite birds? I love how you can pish a warbler close and they're so beautifully marked.

I'm going to enjoy observing these birds from my own window. Back in New Jersey, the most interesting regular visitors were cardinals, which are pretty, but very common. Every now and then we'd get an oriole. We also had tons of juncos, but they're kind of drab. We're getting Redwing Blackbirds at the feeder every day, too. I'm sure we'll see an even greater variety of birds here; all of the birds I've seen so far are already on my life list, but I'm hoping to see something I have never seen before. I should go through the book and see what is in Minnesota that we never got back east.

UPDATE: Just saw a Palm Warbler. This would have to be the southernmost edge of its range.

Come along with me

I've tried to avoid horse race discussions and political discussions in favor of discussions of substance, our miserable mainstream media, and misused words, but it's time to talk politics.

Come along with me
Down into the world of seeing
Come and you'll be free
Take the time to find the feeling
See everything on it's own
And you'll find you know the way
And you'll know the things you're shown
Owe everything to the day

I like that Senator Clinton is still in the race. She may not have a chance to win the nomination, but she could have a chance to deny Obama the nomination and turn it into a brokered convention. If she does, she has the power to determine a good deal of the platform and I hope a real health care plan is what she is aiming for. That would make her entire campaign well worth the trouble and expense. When John Edwards dropped out of the race I was disappointed because I thought he would be the one who determined who the nominee was by having just enough delegates to swing it to Clinton or Obama, which would have given him the power to set the agenda.

See the carpet of the sun
The green grass soft and sweet
Sands upon the shores of time
Of oceans mountains deep
Part of the world that you live in
You are the part that you're giving

So, who's the person for the number two spot on the ticket? Edwards? No way ever. Edwards lost in that spot in 2004, which means that, for the entire campaign, he'd be forced to rehash 2004; that's all the press would talk about with him and it would be a mess.

Come into the day
Feel the sunshine warmth around you
Sounds from far away
Music of the love that found you
The seed that you plant today
Tomorrow will be a tree
And living goes on this way
It's all part of you and me

Obama has a lot of options, but he's also hampered by the notion that he has abandoned the "old politics". (Note: He hasn't because there is no such thing. Everything new is always old and been tried before, but that's politics too. Oh, and also note that I don't take this speculation on VP choices too seriously because it sounds like any breezy, know-it-all, Sunday morning pundidiot, but I'm having fun so cut me some slack.) If Obama were going "old school" then he'd pick a southern governor in the hopes of pulling in southern states he otherwise couldn't hope to get. Mike Beebe? I don't think so, though I can't articulate why. Beshear is out unless you want to listen to how you didn't carry your own state again. Easley? Good on paper. Eight years as a state AG, seven as governor, only 58, which is relatively young for high office. He's got some moxie, but he's also vulnerable to charges of being a tax raiser. Phil Bredesen? Naw. though I love that he's a Jersey boy originally and has a Harvard physics degree. That makes him interesting.

See the carpet of the sun
See the carpet of the sun
See the carpet of the sun
See the carpet of the sun

And then there's Tim Kaine. Harvard law, been a Lieut. Governor and a mayor. People always tab members of Congress, but I like a governor for the executive branch, somebody who's been in executive positions rather than the legislature. That seems to me a more relevant type of experience. Tim Kaine's not a bad choice and he's been an Obama backer well ahead of others.

Dollars down the penny drain
Frozen in the clouds
Dream away the last of pain
In waterfalls of sounds

Float across the icy pools
Leaves with curl and sway
Now your mind is floating cool
And you can find the way

Then there's my personal, double-super-secret favorite, even though it would probably bring all of the racism/sexism of the primary season front and center for the entire campaign: Janet Napolitano, governor of Arizona. She puts Arizona in play against the GOP nominee, she endorsed Obama in January and well ahead of the pack, she was Anita Hill's attorney, which gives Obama instant credibility with women, she's excellent on education, exceptionally knowledgeable on immigration, and she's balanced a lot of budgets as a governor. She's been a US District Attorney, State AG, and governor. To be honest, I'd prefer her to Obama as the presidential nominee, but since that isn't going to happen, she'd make a great vice president...which I doubt will happen either.

Can you understand you can really understand
When the darkness comes you still shine
Open up your eyes and make the day shine sunshine now
Open up your dreams and and make the way shine sunshine now
Can you understand you understand
Can you understand you understand
Open up your life and make your lifetime sunshine now
Open up your soul and make your lifeline sunshine now
Can you understand you understand
Can you understand you understand

In Which I Correct the Great Somerby and Follow His Lead in Slapping Around the Insane Dowd

Bob Somerby never lacks for material if he needs a stupid article to slap around because the New York Times keeps publishing Maureen Dowd. But today Somerby got it all right but the math.

Dreaming nightmares of West Virginia, Dowd found her mind drifting off to the past. Soon, the nuttiest of the entire Dowd clan was typing an old family chestnut:

DOWD (5/14/08): My father, in West Virginia once on business, found his car had been flipped over by some locals furious about a sign on it supporting the first Catholic Democratic nominee, Al Smith.

Say what? Smith was “the first Catholic Democratic nominee” in 1928! Typing further, Dowd fleshed out the hoary old tale:

DOWD: On my father’s trip, he was threatened by a man who asked him about “rumors” that President Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and threatened to thrash any man who said so. My dad, a detective who served on protective details for F.D.R., assured the ruffian that Roosevelt was “a fine, athletic man.”

Say what? If the ruffian asked about President Roosevelt, this happened in 1933 at the earliest. At that late date, why would Daddy Dearest’s car still carry “a sign supporting Al Smith?” We don’t have the slightest idea. Did this incident actually happen? It’s certainly possible. But we want you to see the secret “thinking” that is lurking here.

We told you not too long ago that certain (small) throwback bands of We Irish still tend to scorn the white south. For an example, we gave you Jimmy Breslin in 1999, trashing Candidate Gore as a race-baiting southerner. (See THE DAILY HOWLER, 5/2/08). Are we happy with how that turned out?) Why are We Irish so down on the white rabble south? Of course! As Dowd helps us see in this current ramble, it’s because some white southerners once hated We Catholics! Today, she journeys back seventy years for a stirring example.

Bob, that was eighty years she journeyed back, not seventy, which means her father would have to be pretty old now. The Insane Maureen Dowd is six years and ten days older than me and my father is 86 years old. But her father couldn't be six years and ten days older than my father or he would have been twelve years old when he was driving his car with his Al Smith for President sign in 1928. How old is Maureen Dowd's father?

I think her story was made up. Gee, don't they fire columnists for making stories up anymore?